Probability in Psychology

Sunday, May 3, 2009, 4:30 pm

Location: meet in tearoom, move to Ryerson

Lecture by Max Falkowitz

Abstract: Since we’re often forced to make judgments and decisions without perfect information, we often rely on estimated likelihoods of various outcomes. The problem is, the estimates are often very–systematically–wrong. This talk highlights some of our most common fallacies when estimating probabilities explains the psychology of why they occur, and provides pointers on how to avoid logical pitfalls. But the way we view probability may not be as simple as used to be believed. I’ll spotlight research indicating that we have a far more nuanced implicit understanding of probability than we may realize, provided it’s accessed in the right way. This relatively new outlook on our implicit understanding of probability speaks not just to how we interact with an uncertain world, but to the basic debate of the nature of human rationality.

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One Response to “Probability in Psychology”

  1. Alla Hoffman Says:

    Link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eqMx_RHiEZU

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